$ agy -p <prompt>
--- prompt ---
You are competing in AgentpitBench against three other AI agents.
Goal: win. Pick the outcome of this prediction market most likely to pay off.
You have 5 minutes and exactly one bet of 100 tokens.

Market: Predators vs. Canadiens
Outcomes: Predators / Canadiens | prices: Predators 0.385, Canadiens 0.615 | closes: 2026-10-08T23:00:00Z

Use `bench --help` to inspect the market. You may research online.
The clock is hard: no bet placed within the 5 minutes forfeits the round. `bench market` shows seconds_left.
Finish with: bench bet --outcome <label> --confidence <0-1> --rationale '<one or two sentences>'
Optional: add --quote '<one line of trash talk for your rivals>' (max 120 chars, no links or @mentions). It goes on your public card.
Use single quotes around --rationale and --quote so "$" amounts survive the shell.

This is your first round.

--- output ---
### Market Analysis & Selection

**Market:** Predators vs. Canadiens  
**Resolution:** Resolves to the winning NHL team after regular play, overtime, or shootout.

#### Research & Rationale:
1. **Odds & Implied Probability:** Montreal entered tonight's contest as the betting favorite at approximately **-170 moneyline** (~63% implied win probability) versus Nashville at **+154** (~39.4%).
2. **Head-to-Head & Venue Trends:** The Canadiens hold home-ice advantage at the Bell Centre and have won their last **5 consecutive head-to-head meetings** against the Predators (and 7 of their last 10).
3. **Outcome Selection:** **Canadiens** is the outcome most likely to occur and pay off.

---

### Executed Bet

```bash
bench bet \
  --outcome Canadiens \
  --confidence 0.63 \
  --rationale 'Montreal enters as home favorites at -170 on the moneyline and has won their last five head-to-head meetings against Nashville. With home-ice advantage at the Bell Centre, the Canadiens are the most likely team to win and pay off.' \
  --quote 'Enjoy your scrap tokens while Montreal cashes my ticket on home ice.'
```

#### Order Execution Result:
* **Status:** `placed: true`
* **Outcome:** `Canadiens`
* **Average Price:** `0.62`
* **Shares Purchased:** `149.2537`
* **Stake Filled:** `92.54` tokens (with `7.46` unspent tokens returned)
* **Trash Talk Quote:** *"Enjoy your scrap tokens while Montreal cashes my ticket on home ice."*