$ codex exec <prompt>
--- prompt ---
You are competing in AgentpitBench against three other AI agents.
Goal: win. Pick the outcome of this prediction market most likely to pay off.
You have 5 minutes and exactly one bet of 100 tokens.

Market: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
Outcomes: TheMongolz / MOUZ | prices: TheMongolz 0.360, MOUZ 0.640 | closes: 2026-10-26T12:00:00Z

Use `bench --help` to inspect the market. You may research online.
The clock is hard: no bet placed within the 5 minutes forfeits the round. `bench market` shows seconds_left.
Finish with: bench bet --outcome <label> --confidence <0-1> --rationale '<one or two sentences>'
Optional: add --quote '<one line of trash talk for your rivals>' (max 120 chars, no links or @mentions). It goes on your public card.
Use single quotes around --rationale and --quote so "$" amounts survive the shell.

Your record over your last 20 rounds: 12-8, net P&L +33.3.
- Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Aris Thessaloniki win on 2026-10-25? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will FK Zenit win on 2026-10-25? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Club Brugge win on 2026-10-25? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +38.9
- Will Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-25? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +42.9
- Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +40.8
- Will Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +316.7
- Will Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +29.9
- Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +35.1
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-10-24? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-10-24? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +53.8
- Will FCI Levadia Tallinn vs. Harju JK Laagri end in a draw? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will FC Südtirol vs. UC Sampdoria end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Como 1907 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +23.5
- Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +44.9
- Will Psim Yogyakarta win on 2026-10-24? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +78.6
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner | you picked Aurora Gaming | winner Aurora Gaming | won | P&L +58.7
- Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-10-24? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +69.5

--- output ---
WARNING: proceeding, even though we could not create PATH aliases: Refusing to create helper binaries under temporary dir "/tmp" (codex_home: AbsolutePathBuf("/tmp/apbh-codex-7j0gbomo/.codex"))
Reading additional input from stdin...
OpenAI Codex v0.161.0
--------
workdir: /tmp/apb-125-codex-knttdsxr
model: gpt-6-astra
provider: openai
approval: never
sandbox: danger-full-access
reasoning effort: max
reasoning summaries: none
session id: 01a1765c-ef94-72e2-ade6-76f852e8d5c1
--------
user
You are competing in AgentpitBench against three other AI agents.
Goal: win. Pick the outcome of this prediction market most likely to pay off.
You have 5 minutes and exactly one bet of 100 tokens.

Market: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
Outcomes: TheMongolz / MOUZ | prices: TheMongolz 0.360, MOUZ 0.640 | closes: 2026-10-26T12:00:00Z

Use `bench --help` to inspect the market. You may research online.
The clock is hard: no bet placed within the 5 minutes forfeits the round. `bench market` shows seconds_left.
Finish with: bench bet --outcome <label> --confidence <0-1> --rationale '<one or two sentences>'
Optional: add --quote '<one line of trash talk for your rivals>' (max 120 chars, no links or @mentions). It goes on your public card.
Use single quotes around --rationale and --quote so "$" amounts survive the shell.

Your record over your last 20 rounds: 12-8, net P&L +33.3.
- Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Aris Thessaloniki win on 2026-10-25? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will FK Zenit win on 2026-10-25? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Club Brugge win on 2026-10-25? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +38.9
- Will Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-25? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +42.9
- Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +40.8
- Will Hull City AFC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +316.7
- Will Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +29.9
- Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +35.1
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-10-24? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-10-24? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +53.8
- Will FCI Levadia Tallinn vs. Harju JK Laagri end in a draw? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will FC Südtirol vs. UC Sampdoria end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Como 1907 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +23.5
- Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +44.9
- Will Psim Yogyakarta win on 2026-10-24? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +78.6
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner | you picked Aurora Gaming | winner Aurora Gaming | won | P&L +58.7
- Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-10-24? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +69.5

codex
I’ll inspect the market and look for match and map details before placing the bet.

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench --help' in /tmp/apb-125-codex-knttdsxr
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench [-h] {market,book,history,bet} ...

Inspect the market and place your one bet.

positional arguments:
  {market,book,history,bet}
    market              Market snapshot: question, description, outcomes,
                        prices, end date
    book                Order book for one outcome
    history             Price history for the market
    bet                 Place your one 100-token bet. Works once.

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit

web search: 
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench bet --help' in /tmp/apb-125-codex-knttdsxr
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench bet [-h] --outcome OUTCOME --rationale RATIONALE --confidence
                 CONFIDENCE [--max-price MAX_PRICE] [--quote QUOTE]

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit
  --outcome OUTCOME
  --rationale RATIONALE
  --confidence CONFIDENCE
                        0 to 1
  --max-price MAX_PRICE
                        worst price you accept (default: best ask + 0.05)
  --quote QUOTE         optional one-line trash talk for your rivals, shown on
                        your card (max 120 chars, no links)

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench market' in /tmp/apb-125-codex-knttdsxr
web search: TheMongolz MOUZ October 26 2026 map 2 Counter Strike
 succeeded in 1407ms:
{
  "question": "Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner",
  "description": "This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between TheMongolz and MOUZ in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"TheMongolz\" if TheMongolz win Map 2 against MOUZ.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"MOUZ\" if MOUZ win Map 2 against TheMongolz.\n\nIf the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. \n\nIf Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. \n\nIf the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event\u2019s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.",
  "outcomes": [
    "TheMongolz",
    "MOUZ"
  ],
  "prices": [
    0.36,
    0.64
  ],
  "best_bid": 0.35,
  "best_ask": 0.37,
  "end_date": "2026-10-26T12:00:00Z",
  "stake": 100.0,
  "seconds_left": 289
}

web search: 
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench history --help' in /tmp/apb-125-codex-knttdsxr
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench history [-h] --outcome OUTCOME

options:
  -h, --help         show this help message and exit
  --outcome OUTCOME

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench book --help' in /tmp/apb-125-codex-knttdsxr
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench book [-h] --outcome OUTCOME

options:
  -h, --help         show this help message and exit
  --outcome OUTCOME

web search: https://www.hltv.org/matches/2399735/the-mongolz-vs-mouz-pgl-masters-bucharest-2026
web search: 
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench history --outcome MOUZ' in /tmp/apb-125-codex-knttdsxr
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench book --outcome MOUZ' in /tmp/apb-125-codex-knttdsxr
web search: "TheMongolz" "MOUZ" "26" "2026" "Map 2" odds ...
 succeeded in 1303ms:
{
  "outcome": "MOUZ",
  "bids": [
    {
      "price": "0.63",
      "size": "5"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.62",
      "size": "415"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.61",
      "size": "1113"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.6",
      "size": "118.8"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.59",
      "size": "350"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.58",
      "size": "250"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.55",
      "size": "43.38"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.54",
      "size": "750"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.51",
      "size": "858.6"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.5",
      "size": "1800"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.42",
      "size": "10"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.38",
      "size": "2024"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.37",
      "size": "20"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.35",
      "size": "530.8"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.34",
      "size": "283.6"
    }
  ],
  "asks": [
    {
      "price": "0.65",
      "size": "875.75"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.66",
      "size": "886"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.67",
      "size": "121"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.68",
      "size": "234"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.69",
      "size": "1546.8"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.7",
      "size": "1800"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.71",
      "size": "70.31"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.72",
      "size": "2000"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.74",
      "size": "2750"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.75",
      "size": "12"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.76",
      "size": "88.44"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.77",
      "size": "4000"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.79",
      "size": "78.28"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.8",
      "size": "1411.03"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.81",
      "size": "176.52"
    }
  ],
  "last_trade_price": "0.64"
}

 succeeded in 1305ms:
{
  "history": []
}

codex
MOUZ is my pick at about 65% confidence. [HLTV](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2399735/the-mongolz-vs-mouz-pgl-masters-bucharest-2026) ranks them fourth against TheMongolz’s twentieth and shows stronger recent win rates on Mirage, Inferno and Nuke. Map 2 remains unannounced, and the available price is 0.65, so the evidence supports the favorite without showing a clear pricing edge.

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc "bench bet --outcome MOUZ --confidence 0.65 --max-price 0.65 --rationale 'HLTV ranks MOUZ fourth versus TheMongolz twentieth, with stronger recent win rates on Mirage, Inferno and Nuke. Map 2 remains unannounced, so I estimate a measured 65% win probability; MOUZ is the likelier winner, with little pricing edge at the available 0.65 ask.'" in /tmp/apb-125-codex-knttdsxr
 succeeded in 3327ms:
{
  "placed": true,
  "outcome": "MOUZ",
  "avg_price": 0.65,
  "shares": 153.8462,
  "stake_filled": 100.0,
  "unspent": 0.0
}

codex
Placed **100 tokens on MOUZ** at **0.65**, with **65% confidence**.

Potential profit if MOUZ wins Map 2: **53.85 tokens**.
tokens used
36,976
Placed **100 tokens on MOUZ** at **0.65**, with **65% confidence**.

Potential profit if MOUZ wins Map 2: **53.85 tokens**.