$ codex exec <prompt>
--- prompt ---
You are competing in AgentpitBench against three other AI agents.
Goal: win. Pick the outcome of this prediction market most likely to pay off.
You have 5 minutes and exactly one bet of 100 tokens.

Market: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8PM ET
Outcomes: Up / Down | prices: Up 0.455, Down 0.545 | closes: 2026-10-11T01:00:00Z

Use `bench --help` to inspect the market. You may research online.
The clock is hard: no bet placed within the 5 minutes forfeits the round. `bench market` shows seconds_left.
Finish with: bench bet --outcome <label> --confidence <0-1> --rationale '<one or two sentences>'
Optional: add --quote '<one line of trash talk for your rivals>' (max 120 chars, no links or @mentions). It goes on your public card.
Use single quotes around --rationale and --quote so "$" amounts survive the shell.

Your record over your last 7 rounds: 2-5, net P&L -367.0.
- Will Stockport County FC win on 2026-10-10? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Aston Villa FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-10-10? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +85.2
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Ducks vs. Jets | you picked Jets | winner Ducks | lost | P&L -100.0
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8PM ET | you picked Down | winner Down | won | P&L +47.9
- Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier  | you picked Nuclear TigeRES | winner PRIVATE | lost | P&L -100.0

--- output ---
WARNING: proceeding, even though we could not create PATH aliases: Refusing to create helper binaries under temporary dir "/tmp" (codex_home: AbsolutePathBuf("/tmp/apbh-codex-dugb5ccy/.codex"))
Reading additional input from stdin...
OpenAI Codex v0.161.0
--------
workdir: /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
model: gpt-6-luna
provider: openai
approval: never
sandbox: danger-full-access
reasoning effort: max
reasoning summaries: none
session id: 01a12857-9400-7d91-a04b-ab14034c4377
--------
user
You are competing in AgentpitBench against three other AI agents.
Goal: win. Pick the outcome of this prediction market most likely to pay off.
You have 5 minutes and exactly one bet of 100 tokens.

Market: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8PM ET
Outcomes: Up / Down | prices: Up 0.455, Down 0.545 | closes: 2026-10-11T01:00:00Z

Use `bench --help` to inspect the market. You may research online.
The clock is hard: no bet placed within the 5 minutes forfeits the round. `bench market` shows seconds_left.
Finish with: bench bet --outcome <label> --confidence <0-1> --rationale '<one or two sentences>'
Optional: add --quote '<one line of trash talk for your rivals>' (max 120 chars, no links or @mentions). It goes on your public card.
Use single quotes around --rationale and --quote so "$" amounts survive the shell.

Your record over your last 7 rounds: 2-5, net P&L -367.0.
- Will Stockport County FC win on 2026-10-10? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Aston Villa FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-10-10? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +85.2
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Ducks vs. Jets | you picked Jets | winner Ducks | lost | P&L -100.0
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8PM ET | you picked Down | winner Down | won | P&L +47.9
- Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier  | you picked Nuclear TigeRES | winner PRIVATE | lost | P&L -100.0

codex
I’ll inspect the market’s exact resolution rules and live time remaining, then place the single 100-token bet before the deadline.
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench --help && bench market' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench [-h] {market,book,history,bet} ...

Inspect the market and place your one bet.

positional arguments:
  {market,book,history,bet}
    market              Market snapshot: question, description, outcomes,
                        prices, end date
    book                Order book for one outcome
    history             Price history for the market
    bet                 Place your one 100-token bet. Works once.

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit
{
  "question": "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8PM ET",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"Down\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close \u00ab C \u00bb and open \u00ab O \u00bb displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant \"1H\" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.",
  "outcomes": [
    "Up",
    "Down"
  ],
  "prices": [
    0.505,
    0.495
  ],
  "best_bid": 0.5,
  "best_ask": 0.51,
  "end_date": "2026-10-11T01:00:00Z",
  "stake": 100.0,
  "seconds_left": 295
}

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench history --help' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench history [-h] --outcome OUTCOME

options:
  -h, --help         show this help message and exit
  --outcome OUTCOME

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench book --help' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench book [-h] --outcome OUTCOME

options:
  -h, --help         show this help message and exit
  --outcome OUTCOME

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench history' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 exited 2 in 0ms:
usage: bench history [-h] --outcome OUTCOME
bench history: error: the following arguments are required: --outcome

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc "curl -s 'https://api.binance.com/api/v3/klines?symbol=BTCUSDT&interval=1h&startTime=1791676800000&limit=2'" in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench book --outcome Down' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 0ms:
{
  "outcome": "Down",
  "bids": [
    {
      "price": "0.48",
      "size": "32.4"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.47",
      "size": "80"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.46",
      "size": "70"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.45",
      "size": "125"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.44",
      "size": "140"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.43",
      "size": "150"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.42",
      "size": "111.36"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.41",
      "size": "175"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.4",
      "size": "105"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.39",
      "size": "75"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.38",
      "size": "95"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.37",
      "size": "75"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.36",
      "size": "145"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.35",
      "size": "75"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.34",
      "size": "35"
    }
  ],
  "asks": [
    {
      "price": "0.49",
      "size": "85"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.5",
      "size": "240"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.51",
      "size": "36"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.52",
      "size": "40"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.53",
      "size": "60"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.54",
      "size": "125"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.55",
      "size": "208.09"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.56",
      "size": "145"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.57",
      "size": "135"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.58",
      "size": "100"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.59",
      "size": "310"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.6",
      "size": "552.5"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.61",
      "size": "135"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.62",
      "size": "145"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.63",
      "size": "125"
    }
  ],
  "last_trade_price": "0.49"
}

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench book --outcome Up' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 0ms:
{
  "outcome": "Up",
  "bids": [
    {
      "price": "0.51",
      "size": "85"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.5",
      "size": "240"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.49",
      "size": "36"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.48",
      "size": "40"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.47",
      "size": "60"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.46",
      "size": "125"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.45",
      "size": "208.09"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.44",
      "size": "145"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.43",
      "size": "135"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.42",
      "size": "100"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.41",
      "size": "310"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.4",
      "size": "552.5"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.39",
      "size": "135"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.38",
      "size": "145"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.37",
      "size": "125"
    }
  ],
  "asks": [
    {
      "price": "0.52",
      "size": "32.4"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.53",
      "size": "80"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.54",
      "size": "70"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.55",
      "size": "125"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.56",
      "size": "140"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.57",
      "size": "150"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.58",
      "size": "111.36"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.59",
      "size": "175"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.6",
      "size": "105"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.61",
      "size": "75"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.62",
      "size": "95"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.63",
      "size": "75"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.64",
      "size": "145"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.65",
      "size": "75"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.66",
      "size": "35"
    }
  ],
  "last_trade_price": "0.51"
}

 succeeded in 146ms:
[[1791676800000,"82988.35000000","83030.18000000","82988.35000000","82995.71000000","51.25638000",1791680399999,"4254600.51706460",6250,"32.26653000","2678312.12429510","0"]]
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'date -u' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 0ms:
Sun Oct 11 00:23:37 UTC 2026

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench bet --help' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench bet [-h] --outcome OUTCOME --rationale RATIONALE --confidence
                 CONFIDENCE [--max-price MAX_PRICE] [--quote QUOTE]

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit
  --outcome OUTCOME
  --rationale RATIONALE
  --confidence CONFIDENCE
                        0 to 1
  --max-price MAX_PRICE
                        worst price you accept (default: best ask + 0.05)
  --quote QUOTE         optional one-line trash talk for your rivals, shown on
                        your card (max 120 chars, no links)

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench history --outcome Up' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench history --outcome Down' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 0ms:
{
  "history": []
}

 succeeded in 80ms:
{
  "history": []
}

codex
The Binance 1-hour candle is currently just above its open, but only by about 0.009%, so the signal is weak. I’m checking the latest minute-by-minute direction and the current book before choosing.
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench market' in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 0ms:
{
  "question": "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8PM ET",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"Down\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close \u00ab C \u00bb and open \u00ab O \u00bb displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant \"1H\" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.\n\nPlease note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.",
  "outcomes": [
    "Up",
    "Down"
  ],
  "prices": [
    0.535,
    0.465
  ],
  "best_bid": 0.53,
  "best_ask": 0.54,
  "end_date": "2026-10-11T01:00:00Z",
  "stake": 100.0,
  "seconds_left": 249
}

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc "curl -s 'https://api.binance.com/api/v3/ticker/price?symbol=BTCUSDT'" in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc "curl -s 'https://api.binance.com/api/v3/klines?symbol=BTCUSDT&interval=5m&limit=6'" in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc "curl -s 'https://api.binance.com/api/v3/klines?symbol=BTCUSDT&interval=1m&limit=10'" in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 138ms:
{"symbol":"BTCUSDT","price":"82995.71000000"}
 succeeded in 140ms:
[[1791677700000,"83030.17000000","83030.18000000","83020.00000000","83020.01000000","3.43558000",1791677759999,"285243.68249400",257,"0.50836000","42209.14938590","0"],[1791677760000,"83020.01000000","83020.01000000","83020.00000000","83020.01000000","0.55701000",1791677819999,"46242.97529890",74,"0.50989000","42331.07289890","0"],[1791677820000,"83020.01000000","83020.01000000","83000.01000000","83000.01000000","2.81489000",1791677879999,"233668.39318460",615,"0.37045000","30752.49951480","0"],[1791677880000,"83000.01000000","83000.02000000","83000.01000000","83000.01000000","4.30492000",1791677939999,"357308.41061210",162,"0.75629000","62772.08512580","0"],[1791677940000,"83000.02000000","83000.02000000","82995.70000000","82995.71000000","1.24926000",1791677999999,"103687.72371440",238,"0.60523000","50233.44810780","0"],[1791678000000,"82995.70000000","82995.71000000","82995.70000000","82995.71000000","0.58201000",1791678059999,"48304.33212930",87,"0.47723000","39608.04268330","0"],[1791678060000,"82995.70000000","82995.71000000","82995.70000000","82995.71000000","0.54193000",1791678119999,"44977.86476620",74,"0.50652000","42038.98702920","0"],[1791678120000,"82995.70000000","82995.71000000","82995.70000000","82995.71000000","1.21834000",1791678179999,"101116.99184000",126,"1.07020000","88822.00884200","0"],[1791678180000,"82995.70000000","82995.71000000","82995.70000000","82995.71000000","0.90790000",1791678239999,"75351.80006970",172,"0.40397000","33527.77696870","0"],[1791678240000,"82995.71000000","82995.71000000","82995.71000000","82995.71000000","0.00000000",1791678299999,"0.00000000",0,"0.00000000","0.00000000","0"]]
 succeeded in 144ms:
[[1791676500000,"82988.36000000","82988.36000000","82988.35000000","82988.36000000","5.35160000",1791676799999,"444120.48475940",484,"3.08994000","256429.05309840","0"],[1791676800000,"82988.35000000","83007.47000000","82988.35000000","83000.01000000","15.24799000",1791677099999,"1265578.27933060",1995,"11.53324000","957257.11779930","0"],[1791677100000,"83000.02000000","83016.01000000","83000.01000000","83016.00000000","13.56768000",1791677399999,"1126173.88449110",1395,"9.85576000","818077.29096820","0"],[1791677400000,"83016.00000000","83030.18000000","83009.85000000","83030.18000000","7.48909000",1791677699999,"621741.60245120",1172,"5.89574000","489468.72392970","0"],[1791677700000,"83030.17000000","83030.18000000","82995.70000000","82995.71000000","12.36166000",1791677999999,"1026151.18530400",1346,"2.75022000","228298.25503320","0"],[1791678000000,"82995.70000000","82995.71000000","82995.70000000","82995.71000000","3.25018000",1791678299999,"269750.98880520",459,"2.45792000","203996.81552320","0"]]
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc "bench bet --outcome Down --confidence 0.49 --rationale 'Binance BTC/USDT is only "'$7 above the 00:00 UTC candle open after 24 minutes, so this is close to a coin flip. Down costs 0.47 in the book, giving the better expected payout on a near-even setup.'"' --quote 'A tiny green candle is not a victory lap.'" in /tmp/apb-17-codex-szrrlylt
 succeeded in 4408ms:
{
  "placed": true,
  "outcome": "Down",
  "avg_price": 0.5206,
  "shares": 192.3585,
  "stake_filled": 100.15,
  "unspent": -0.15,
  "quote": "A tiny green candle is not a victory lap."
}