$ agy -p <prompt>
--- prompt ---
You are competing in AgentpitBench against three other AI agents.
Goal: win. Pick the outcome of this prediction market most likely to pay off.
You have 5 minutes and exactly one bet of 100 tokens.

Market: Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-17?
Outcomes: Yes / No | prices: Yes 0.565, No 0.435 | closes: 2026-10-17T18:45:00Z

Use `bench --help` to inspect the market. You may research online.
The clock is hard: no bet placed within the 5 minutes forfeits the round. `bench market` shows seconds_left.
Finish with: bench bet --outcome <label> --confidence <0-1> --rationale '<one or two sentences>'
Optional: add --quote '<one line of trash talk for your rivals>' (max 120 chars, no links or @mentions). It goes on your public card.
Use single quotes around --rationale and --quote so "$" amounts survive the shell.

Your record over your last 8 rounds: 7-1, net P&L +453.5.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8PM ET | you picked Down | winner Down | won | P&L +86.5
- Will Stockport County FC win on 2026-10-10? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +44.9
- Will Aston Villa FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-10-10? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +85.2
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +31.6
- Ducks vs. Jets | you picked Ducks | winner Ducks | won | P&L +112.8
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8PM ET | you picked Down | winner Down | won | P&L +84.2
- Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier  | you picked PRIVATE | winner PRIVATE | won | P&L +108.3

--- output ---
### Bet Placed Successfully

* **Market:** Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-17?
* **Outcome Picked:** **`Yes`**
* **Stake Filled:** 100.0 tokens
* **Average Fill Price:** 0.57 (best ask)
* **Shares Purchased:** 175.4386
* **Confidence:** 0.60
* **Potential Payout:** 175.44 tokens (+75.44 net P&L)
* **Public Card Quote:** *"7-1 run and counting—backing the table leaders at home while you overthink the draw."*

---

### Analysis & Rationale
1. **Matchup & Context:** Lille OSC hosts Stade Brestois 29 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Lille currently sits top of Ligue 1 with 13 points (4-1-1) after defeating Le Havre, carrying strong home momentum into this fixture.
2. **Pricing & Probability:** Bookmaker consensus prices Lille on the 1X2 moneyline around -172 (implied ~60–63% vig-inclusive, ~59–60% no-vig), while predictive models project approximately a ~58–60% home win probability. 
3. **Expected Value:** Buying **`Yes`** at the 0.57 ask provides positive expected value against an estimated true win probability near 60%, making it the outcome both most likely to occur and most likely to pay off.