$ codex exec <prompt>
--- prompt ---
You are competing in AgentpitBench against three other AI agents.
Goal: win. Pick the outcome of this prediction market most likely to pay off.
You have 5 minutes and exactly one bet of 100 tokens.

Market: Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries
Outcomes: Atlanta Dream / Golden State Valkyries | prices: Atlanta Dream 0.445, Golden State Valkyries 0.555 | closes: 2026-10-20T00:00:00Z

Use `bench --help` to inspect the market. You may research online.
The clock is hard: no bet placed within the 5 minutes forfeits the round. `bench market` shows seconds_left.
Finish with: bench bet --outcome <label> --confidence <0-1> --rationale '<one or two sentences>'
Optional: add --quote '<one line of trash talk for your rivals>' (max 120 chars, no links or @mentions). It goes on your public card.
Use single quotes around --rationale and --quote so "$" amounts survive the shell.

Your record over your last 20 rounds: 11-9, net P&L +144.0.
- Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-17? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 16, 2026? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +88.4
- Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $210 Week of October 12 2026? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of October 12 2026? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +354.5
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 October 12-18? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +117.4
- Will AEK win on 2026-10-14? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +56.2
- Will Ankara Keciorengucu win on 2026-10-14? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs FORZE Reload (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage | you picked BET-M 33 | winner FORZE Reload | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will LASK Linz vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +20.5
- Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 Week of October 12 2026? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +132.6
- Ethereum Up or Down on October 14? | you picked Down | winner Down | won | P&L +96.1
- Solana Up or Down on October 14? | you picked Up | winner Down | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Istanbulspor AS win on 2026-10-14? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +23.5
- Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs mellren (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #11 Group Stage | you picked mellren | winner ex-RUSTEC | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $224 Week of October 12 2026? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +50.6
- Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-10-14? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +19.0
- Will Vissel Kobe win on 2026-10-14? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | you picked Up | winner Down | lost | P&L -100.0
- Oilers vs. Kings | you picked Oilers | winner Oilers | won | P&L +85.2
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-10-13? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0

--- output ---
WARNING: proceeding, even though we could not create PATH aliases: Refusing to create helper binaries under temporary dir "/tmp" (codex_home: AbsolutePathBuf("/tmp/apbh-codex-0rdnpwwq/.codex"))
Reading additional input from stdin...
OpenAI Codex v0.161.0
--------
workdir: /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
model: gpt-6-astra
provider: openai
approval: never
sandbox: danger-full-access
reasoning effort: max
reasoning summaries: none
session id: 01a15519-3462-7103-b1fa-83c2e5dec58d
--------
user
You are competing in AgentpitBench against three other AI agents.
Goal: win. Pick the outcome of this prediction market most likely to pay off.
You have 5 minutes and exactly one bet of 100 tokens.

Market: Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries
Outcomes: Atlanta Dream / Golden State Valkyries | prices: Atlanta Dream 0.445, Golden State Valkyries 0.555 | closes: 2026-10-20T00:00:00Z

Use `bench --help` to inspect the market. You may research online.
The clock is hard: no bet placed within the 5 minutes forfeits the round. `bench market` shows seconds_left.
Finish with: bench bet --outcome <label> --confidence <0-1> --rationale '<one or two sentences>'
Optional: add --quote '<one line of trash talk for your rivals>' (max 120 chars, no links or @mentions). It goes on your public card.
Use single quotes around --rationale and --quote so "$" amounts survive the shell.

Your record over your last 20 rounds: 11-9, net P&L +144.0.
- Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-17? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 16, 2026? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +88.4
- Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $210 Week of October 12 2026? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $252 Week of October 12 2026? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +354.5
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 October 12-18? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +117.4
- Will AEK win on 2026-10-14? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +56.2
- Will Ankara Keciorengucu win on 2026-10-14? | you picked Yes | winner No | lost | P&L -100.0
- Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs FORZE Reload (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage | you picked BET-M 33 | winner FORZE Reload | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will LASK Linz vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +20.5
- Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 Week of October 12 2026? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +132.6
- Ethereum Up or Down on October 14? | you picked Down | winner Down | won | P&L +96.1
- Solana Up or Down on October 14? | you picked Up | winner Down | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will Istanbulspor AS win on 2026-10-14? | you picked No | winner No | won | P&L +23.5
- Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs mellren (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #11 Group Stage | you picked mellren | winner ex-RUSTEC | lost | P&L -100.0
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $224 Week of October 12 2026? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +50.6
- Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-10-14? | you picked Yes | winner Yes | won | P&L +19.0
- Will Vissel Kobe win on 2026-10-14? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0
- Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | you picked Up | winner Down | lost | P&L -100.0
- Oilers vs. Kings | you picked Oilers | winner Oilers | won | P&L +85.2
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-10-13? | you picked No | winner Yes | lost | P&L -100.0

codex
I’ll check the market details and current team information, then place the 100-token bet before the deadline.

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench --help' in /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench [-h] {market,book,history,bet} ...

Inspect the market and place your one bet.

positional arguments:
  {market,book,history,bet}
    market              Market snapshot: question, description, outcomes,
                        prices, end date
    book                Order book for one outcome
    history             Price history for the market
    bet                 Place your one 100-token bet. Works once.

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit

web search: 
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench history' in /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
 exited 2 in 0ms:
usage: bench history [-h] --outcome OUTCOME
bench history: error: the following arguments are required: --outcome

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench market' in /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
 succeeded in 3ms:
{
  "question": "Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries",
  "description": "In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for October 19 at 8:00PM ET:\nIf the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to \"Atlanta Dream\".\nIf the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to \"Golden State Valkyries\".\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.\nThe result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.",
  "outcomes": [
    "Atlanta Dream",
    "Golden State Valkyries"
  ],
  "prices": [
    0.445,
    0.555
  ],
  "best_bid": 0.44,
  "best_ask": 0.45,
  "end_date": "2026-10-20T00:00:00Z",
  "stake": 100.0,
  "seconds_left": 289
}

web search: Atlanta Dream Golden State Valkyries October 19 2026 odds injuries basketball
web search: 
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc "bench history --outcome 'Golden State Valkyries'" in /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc "bench book --outcome 'Golden State Valkyries'" in /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
 succeeded in 150ms:
{
  "history": []
}

 succeeded in 161ms:
{
  "outcome": "Golden State Valkyries",
  "bids": [
    {
      "price": "0.55",
      "size": "464.51"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.54",
      "size": "10937.65"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.53",
      "size": "26681.06"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.52",
      "size": "14530.29"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.51",
      "size": "4537"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.5",
      "size": "2438"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.49",
      "size": "24.48"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.48",
      "size": "6000"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.46",
      "size": "3500"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.45",
      "size": "501"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.44",
      "size": "4534"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.43",
      "size": "5000"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.31",
      "size": "3342.4"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.29",
      "size": "214.48"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.28",
      "size": "650.9"
    }
  ],
  "asks": [
    {
      "price": "0.56",
      "size": "56585.83"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.57",
      "size": "17457.65"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.58",
      "size": "72551.31"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.59",
      "size": "47310.21"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.6",
      "size": "9593"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.61",
      "size": "6100"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.63",
      "size": "3532.43"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.64",
      "size": "4000"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.65",
      "size": "4000"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.66",
      "size": "550.97"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.67",
      "size": "533"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.68",
      "size": "7000"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.71",
      "size": "75.85"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.75",
      "size": "977.81"
    },
    {
      "price": "0.76",
      "size": "4442.26"
    }
  ],
  "last_trade_price": "0.55"
}

web search: https://www.covers.com/wnba/dream-vs-valkyries-prediction-picks-monday-oct-19-2026
web search: 
web search: site.wnba.com Valkyries Dream October 19 2026 Game 2 preview injuries ...
web search: 
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench market' in /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
 succeeded in 89ms:
{
  "question": "Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries",
  "description": "In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for October 19 at 8:00PM ET:\nIf the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to \"Atlanta Dream\".\nIf the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to \"Golden State Valkyries\".\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.\nThe result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.",
  "outcomes": [
    "Atlanta Dream",
    "Golden State Valkyries"
  ],
  "prices": [
    0.445,
    0.555
  ],
  "best_bid": 0.44,
  "best_ask": 0.45,
  "end_date": "2026-10-20T00:00:00Z",
  "stake": 100.0,
  "seconds_left": 264
}

web search: Tiffany Hayes October 19 2026 injury Game 2 Dream Valkyries probable questionable
web search: 
web search: 
web search: 
web search: 
codex
Golden State is favored across the sportsbooks I checked and has won all four meetings this season. The latest reports also have Tiffany Hayes off the injury list. I’m checking the odds after removing bookmaker margin to judge how much value the 0.555 price offers. [Odds](https://www.covers.com/sport/basketball/wnba/matchup/395536/odds), [injury update](https://www.rotowire.com/betting/wnba/game/dream-vs-valkyries-odds-2026-10-19-3029911).

web search: 
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench bet --help' in /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
 succeeded in 0ms:
usage: bench bet [-h] --outcome OUTCOME --rationale RATIONALE --confidence
                 CONFIDENCE [--max-price MAX_PRICE] [--quote QUOTE]

options:
  -h, --help            show this help message and exit
  --outcome OUTCOME
  --rationale RATIONALE
  --confidence CONFIDENCE
                        0 to 1
  --max-price MAX_PRICE
                        worst price you accept (default: best ask + 0.05)
  --quote QUOTE         optional one-line trash talk for your rivals, shown on
                        your card (max 120 chars, no links)

web search: 'Injury'
web search: 
web search: Atlanta Dream Golden State Valkyries October 19 2026 ESPN prediction win probability
web search: 
web search: 'injury report'
web search: 
web search: 'probability'
exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc 'bench market' in /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
 succeeded in 0ms:
{
  "question": "Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries",
  "description": "In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for October 19 at 8:00PM ET:\nIf the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve to \"Atlanta Dream\".\nIf the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to \"Golden State Valkyries\".\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.\nThe result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.",
  "outcomes": [
    "Atlanta Dream",
    "Golden State Valkyries"
  ],
  "prices": [
    0.445,
    0.555
  ],
  "best_bid": 0.44,
  "best_ask": 0.45,
  "end_date": "2026-10-20T00:00:00Z",
  "stake": 100.0,
  "seconds_left": 211
}

web search: 
web search: '%'
web search: 
web search: 
codex
I’m taking Golden State with 57% confidence. Sportsbook odds imply about 55% after removing margin, while Dimers projects 59.9%; that supports a modest edge at this price. Golden State also has home court and showed greater bench depth in Game 1. [Odds](https://www.covers.com/sport/basketball/wnba/matchup/395536/odds), [Dimers](https://www.dimers.com/wnba/news/atlanta-dream-vs-golden-state-valkyries-prediction-10-19-2026-ac), [team preview](https://valkyries.wnba.com/news/gameday-preview-20261019).

exec
/usr/bin/zsh -lc "bench bet --outcome 'Golden State Valkyries' --confidence 0.57 --max-price 0.56 --rationale 'Golden State is the consensus home favorite, is 4-0 against Atlanta this season, and has Tiffany Hayes available while Brionna Jones remains out. Weighing roughly 55% no-vig sportsbook odds alongside Dimers at 59.9% and ESPN at 62.7%, I estimate a 57% win probability and a modest edge at the quoted price.' --quote 'Your models can dream. Mine bought the home court.'" in /tmp/apb-57-codex-12q238r9
 succeeded in 4387ms:
{
  "placed": true,
  "outcome": "Golden State Valkyries",
  "avg_price": 0.56,
  "shares": 178.5714,
  "stake_filled": 100.0,
  "unspent": 0.0,
  "quote": "Your models can dream. Mine bought the home court."
}

codex
Placed **100 tokens on Golden State Valkyries** at **0.56**.

Confidence: **57%**. Potential profit if they win: **78.57 tokens**.
tokens used
117,172
Placed **100 tokens on Golden State Valkyries** at **0.56**.

Confidence: **57%**. Potential profit if they win: **78.57 tokens**.