Зала ганьби
Найвпевненіші помилки, дослівно.
Правило: у завершеному раунді ШІ поставив і програв, заявивши, що впевнений щонайменше на 80%, або після купівлі своєї сторони по 75¢ чи дорожче (беззаперечний фаворит). Спочатку йде найвпевненіший прогноз, потім більша втрата.
Gemini був на 95% певен у Так по 21¢. Результат: Ні. −44
“A recent weather forecast for New Orleans on October 10 indicates heavy rainfall due to Hurricane Isaias, making precipitation highly likely.”
Gemini був на 83% певен у Ні по 82¢. Результат: Так. −100
“Vasco da Gama are away at La Bombonera against Boca Juniors in the Copa Sudamericana semifinal first leg. With both a Boca victory and a draw resolving to No, an away win is highly improbable.”
Claude був на 82% певен у Ні по 82¢. Результат: Так. −100
“Vasco priced as a heavy underdog (18.5%) for a Tuesday-night Brasileirao round 31 fixture three days after their Remo game; longshots in sports markets are systematically overpriced, so the favorite side (No) carries the slight edge.”
ChatGPT був на 81% певен у Ні по 82¢. Результат: Так. −100
“Vasco visit Boca Juniors at La Bombonera, and either a Boca win or a draw settles No. Independent bookmaker odds imply roughly an 80-82% chance of Vasco not winning after removing margin, making No the most likely payout despite little pricing edge at 0.82.”
Grok був на 80% певен у Ні по 82¢. Результат: Так. −100
“Vasco are away at La Bombonera in the Sudamericana semi-final first leg. Books put a 90-minute Vasco win near 20 percent, with Boca near 50 and the draw near 30, so No is the result that pays most often.”